Preventing Targeted Violence Works

Prevented Targeted Violence Report (Past Five Years)
January 2021 – January 2026

Executive Summary

This report documents publicly reported targeted-violence incidents that were prevented, disrupted, or interdicted between January 2021 and January 2026. The scope includes terrorism-related plots, school and workplace violence threats, explosive device plots, stabbing and assassination attempts, vehicular assault planning, and a January 2026 case in which law enforcement prevented a planned mass shooting at a Colorado ski resort.

The report also documents three internally validated, client-reported prevention cases attributed to the Active Shooter Prevention Project (ASPP), LLC, in which trained personnel recognized threat indicators, escalated appropriately, and prevented loss of life.

This report intentionally focuses on prevention outcomes. It recognizes that many successful interventions never result in public trials or media coverage due to early interdiction, juvenile involvement, sealed cases, or administrative resolution.

Methodology

Incidents were identified through a review of:

• U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) and U.S. Attorney’s Office press releases
• Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and Joint Terrorism Task Force (JTTF) announcements
• U.S. Secret Service – National Threat Assessment Center (NTAC) publications
• State and local law-enforcement press releases
• Reputable investigative journalism and publicly available court records

Only incidents meeting the following criteria were included:

• Credible evidence of intent to commit targeted or mass-casualty violence
• Law-enforcement or security intervention prior to execution or escalation
• Clear documentation that the intervention prevented loss of life

Publicly Documented Prevented Incidents

Between 2021 and 2026, dozens of credible mass-casualty plots were prevented through a combination of methods. Public reporting, online threat monitoring, behavioral threat assessment, and timely law-enforcement action.

These incidents include:

• ISIS-inspired mass-shooting plots targeting U.S. military bases and civilian gathering sites (2024-2025, DOJ indictments)
• Domestic terrorism bombing plots, including planned use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) against civilian and corporate targets (2023–2025, DOJ arrests)
• School-based shooting threats reported via social media platforms (Snapchat, Instagram, Discord), leading to arrests or emergency detention before attacks occurred (multiple states, annually)
• Assassination attempts against protected public officials stopped near the point of execution (e.g., June 2022 U.S. Supreme Court Justice case)
• Workplace and faith-based violence plots identified through threat leakage and stopped prior to entry or weapon deployment

Federal analysis consistently shows that targeted attackers rarely act without signaling intent, and that intervention points almost always exist when organizations and communities are trained to recognize them. (U.S. Secret Service NTAC, Averted School Violence, Mass Attacks in Public Spaces).

Recent Case: Colorado Ski Resort Mass Shooting Prevention (January 2026)

Date: January 2026
Location: Summit County / Breckenridge area, Colorado
Authority: Summit County Sheriff’s Office

In early January 2026, law enforcement prevented a planned mass shooting at a Colorado ski resort after multiple members of the public reported explicit online threats.

According to the Summit County Sheriff’s Office, the suspect had posted messages describing his intent to kill multiple people at a ski resort. Deputies conducted an immediate threat assessment, located the individual before he reached the resort, and placed him under arrest.

Authorities confirmed the intervention was based on credible threat indicators, the specificity of the target, and imminent intent, and that the arrest prevented a mass-casualty event. Charges included menacing and threats involving mass harm.

This case reflects a well-documented prevention pathway to success: online leakage, public reporting, rapid law-enforcement response, and interdiction prior to execution.

ASPP-Attributed Prevention Cases (Client-Reported)

The following prevention cases are internally documented and client-reported, attributed directly to ASPP training, standards, and escalation protocols. Due to confidentiality and security considerations, client names are intentionally withheld.

1. Pest Control Company (Fortune 500 Company) – Threat Disclosure and Intervention

• Context: Workplace
• Trigger: An employee disclosed violent intent to colleagues
• ASPP Role: Trained personnel recognized the disclosure as a credible threat indicator and escalated according to ASPP guidance
• Outcome: Intervention occurred before harm; incident resolved without violence

2. Cosmetic Manufacturing Company – Weapon Introduction Prevented

• Context: Industrial manufacturing facility
• Trigger: Indicators suggested an individual intended to bring grenades and a handgun into the workplace
• ASPP Role: ASPP-aligned threat recognition and escalation protocols enabled early action
• Outcome: Weapon introduction was prevented; no injuries occurred

3. Major Outdoor Equipment Manufacturer – Active Shooter Averted

• Context: Major manufacturer with large U.S. military contracts
• Trigger: Credible behavioral indicators surfaced prior to a scheduled active-shooter training
• ASPP Role: Trained personnel notified law enforcement with actionable details
• Outcome: Police conducted a residence search and recovered firearms, explosives, and maps; a planned active-shooter attack was averted

These cases demonstrate real-world prevention outcomes directly tied to training-driven decision-making, not chance.

Prevented Incident Categories

• Terrorism-related mass-shooting plots (interdicted prior to execution)
• Explosive device and bombing plots (disrupted through arrest and seizure)
• School shooting threats reported online and stopped before campus access
• Workplace-targeted violence and assassination attempts
• Vehicular assault planning was identified at the threat-development stage
• Stabbing and edged-weapon attacks were prevented through early intervention

Synopsis: Why Prevention Works and How to Measure It

Targeted violence is rarely spontaneous. Research and case analysis consistently show that attackers exhibit leakage, fixation, grievance escalation, planning, and access-seeking behavior prior to an attack. Most reports show a 90% leakage correlation between people on the pathway to violence and individuals who carry out attacks. The common theme is that, approximately 90% of the time, individuals communicate intent before acting.

Prevention works when organizations:

1. Train people to recognize threat indicators
2. Establish clear reporting and escalation pathways
3. Act decisively when credible risk emerges

Measuring Prevention Effectiveness

Prevention can and should be measured using:

• Reporting rates (credible concerns surfaced)
• Time-to-intervention (report to action)
• Threat-assessment outcomes
• Documented weapon or access interruption
• Law-enforcement confirmation of interdiction

In prevention, “nothing happened” is not failure; it is the intended outcome.

Chris Grollnek
Filed under: Preventing Targeted Violence Works

For organizations seeking active shooter training, targeted violence prevention courses, workplace violence prevention programs, or a nationally recognized public speaker on prevention, Chris Grollnek is the Founder of the Active Shooter Prevention Project (ASPP) and one of the longest-tenured experts focused on prevention-first standards in the United States. Chris provides evidence-based training, executive briefings, and keynote presentations for healthcare systems, schools, government agencies, houses of worship, and enterprise organizations nationwide, both on-site and virtually. His work centers on measurable prevention outcomes, behavioral threat recognition, and stopping violence before execution.

Endnotes / References

[1] U.S. Department of Justice, Press Release: Defendant Charged with Attempting to Provide Material Support to ISIS and Plotting Mass Shooting at Jewish Center, 2024.

[2] U.S. Department of Justice, Press Release: Man Arrested for Plotting Mass Shooting at U.S. Military Base, May 2025.

[3] U.S. Department of Justice, Press Release: International Extremist Charged and Extradited for Planning Mass Casualty Attack, July 2024; updated May 2025.

[4] U.S. Department of Justice, Sentencing Memorandum: Attempted Assassination of U.S. Supreme Court Justice, September 2025.

[5] U.S. Department of Justice, Press Release: Defendant Pleads Guilty to Hate Crime for Plotting Mass Shooting, December 2024.

[6] U.S. Department of Justice, Press Release: Defendant Sentenced for Attempted Church Mass Shooting, June 2025.

[7] U.S. Department of Justice, Press Release: Individuals Arrested for Plotting Bombings Against U.S. Companies, December 2025.

[8] U.S. Department of Justice, Press Release: Defendant Convicted in Firebombing of Planned Parenthood Facility, May 2024.

[9] U.S. Secret Service, National Threat Assessment Center (NTAC), Averted School Violence: A U.S. Secret Service Analysis of Plots Against Schools, 2021.

[10] U.S. Secret Service, National Threat Assessment Center (NTAC), Mass Attacks in Public Spaces – 2016–2020, updated guidance referenced through 2024.

[11] Summit County Sheriff’s Office (Colorado), Public Safety Alert and Arrest Announcement Regarding Threats to Ski Resort, January 2026.

[12] Local and regional reporting citing Summit County Sheriff’s Office statements, January 2026.

[13] FBI / DHS Joint Intelligence Bulletins on Vehicle-Ramming and Mass-Casualty Threat Indicators, 2021–2025.

[14] Active Shooter Prevention Project, LLC (ASPP), Internal Incident Documentation and Client Reports, 2021–2025.